Vegalta Sendai 0–3 Machida Zelvia: Result & Stats

Vegalta Sendai

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Machida Zelvia

3/26/2022

J2 League · Round 6Yurtec Stadium Sendai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vegalta Sendai35%

×Draw27%

Machida Zelvia38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vegalta SendaiExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.27

Vegalta Sendai

1.20

Machida Zelvia

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 127 away

1.28

creates per match

1.31

1.22

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Vegalta Sendai

1.28

Machida Zelvia

1.31

allows per match

Vegalta Sendai

1.22

Machida Zelvia

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vegalta Sendai ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vegalta Sendai or draw

62%

Vegalta Sendai or Machida Zelvia

73%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

65%

Winning margin

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

15%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

70%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

34%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

12%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

72%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

36%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

48%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vegalta Sendai at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.22 · 81 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.28 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vegalta Sendai scores more

35%

level

27%

Machida Zelvia scores more

38%

Machida Zelvia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff