Vega Real 4–3 Salcedo: Result & Stats | Liga Mayor

Vega Real

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Salcedo

V. M. Morales Beato 54', 40', 37'

J. Rosario 4'

D. Jamesley 59', 24' (pen)

B. Bermudez 11'

12/18/2025

Liga Mayor · Round 33Estadio Olímpico La Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vega Real36%

×Draw24%

Salcedo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vega RealExpected goals in this matchSalcedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.53

Vega Real

1.45

Salcedo

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 17 away

1.30

creates per match

1.94

1.13

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Vega Real

1.30

Salcedo

1.94

allows per match

Vega Real

1.13

Salcedo

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vega Real+0.00on par

Salcedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vega Real ↓

Salcedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vega Real or draw

60%

Vega Real or Salcedo

76%

Draw or Salcedo

64%

Winning margin

Vega Real wins by 2+

17%

Salcedo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Vega Real 1+ goals

77%

Vega Real 2+ goals

42%

Vega Real 3+ goals

18%

Salcedo 1+ goals

78%

Salcedo 2+ goals

45%

Salcedo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vega Real (draw refunded)

48%

Salcedo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vega Real at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 64 matches

Salcedo away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vega Real attack 1.30 + Salcedo defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Salcedo attack 1.94 + Vega Real defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vega Real scores more

36%

level

24%

Salcedo scores more

40%

Salcedo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salcedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Rosario

11'

B. Bermudez

24'

D. JamesleyPenalty

37'

40'

54'

59'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff