VC Warriors 0–1 Debibi United: Result & Stats

VC Warriors

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Debibi United

12/7/2025

Division One League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VC Warriors45%

×Draw25%

Debibi United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VC WarriorsExpected goals in this matchDebibi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.20

VC Warriors

1.54

Debibi United

1.20

VC Warriors creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

2.15

creates per match

1.47

0.92

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

VC Warriors

2.15

Debibi United

1.47

allows per match

VC Warriors

0.92

Debibi United

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VC Warriors+0.00on par

Debibi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VC Warriors ↓

Debibi United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

VC Warriors or draw

70%

VC Warriors or Debibi United

75%

Draw or Debibi United

55%

Winning margin

VC Warriors wins by 2+

23%

Debibi United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

VC Warriors 1+ goals

79%

VC Warriors 2+ goals

45%

VC Warriors 3+ goals

20%

Debibi United 1+ goals

70%

Debibi United 2+ goals

34%

Debibi United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

VC Warriors (draw refunded)

60%

Debibi United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VC Warriors at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Debibi United away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VC Warriors attack 2.15 + Debibi United defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.54

Debibi United attack 1.47 + VC Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VC Warriors scores more

45%

level

25%

Debibi United scores more

30%

VC Warriors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "VC Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff