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Växjö W vs Linköping W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Växjö W
Växjö W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Linköping W
Linköping W
N. Akgün 81'
E. Nilsson 26'
I. Dirdal 75'
4/27/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 3Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Växjö W32%
×Draw25%
Linköping W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Växjö W
1.27
Linköping W
1.53

Linköping W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 74 away

creates per match

Växjö W
0.96
Linköping W
1.51

allows per match

Växjö W
1.55
Linköping W
1.59

finishing

Växjö W+0.00on par
Linköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Växjö W ↓

Linköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Växjö W or draw
57%
Växjö W or Linköping W
75%
Draw or Linköping W
68%

Winning margin

Växjö W wins by 2+
13%
Linköping W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Växjö W 1+ goals
72%
Växjö W 2+ goals
36%
Växjö W 3+ goals
14%
Linköping W 1+ goals
78%
Linköping W 2+ goals
45%
Linköping W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Växjö W (draw refunded)
42%
Linköping W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Växjö W at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.55 · 67 matches

Linköping W away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Växjö W attack 0.96 + Linköping W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Linköping W attack 1.51 + Växjö W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Växjö W scores more
32%
level
25%
Linköping W scores more
43%

Linköping W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Linköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
I. DirdalLinköping WLinköping W · M
7.7

Match Events

26'
E. Nilsson
59'
L. Björk← M. De Jongh
59'
D. Pridham← E. Lundin
70'
D. Dupuy← J. Danielsson
71'
I. Dirdal← V. Koivisto
75'
I. Dirdal
79'
V. Svanström← H. Ellingsen
81'
N. Akgün
84'
E. Hammarbäck← Þ. Ágústsdóttir
84'
A. Beard← A. Selerud

Possession

38%Växjö

Shots

13Växjö

Pass accuracy

48%Växjö

Statistics

VäxjöLinköping
Overview
38%Possession62%
13Total Shots13
1.27Expected Goals (xG)1.74
4Corners3
5Fouls6
Shots
13Total Shots13
4On Target4
5Off Target6
4Blocked2
8Inside Box7
5Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
383Total Passes598
300Accurate Passes511
78%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls6
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Växjö W vs Linköping W

Växjö W beat Linköping W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on April 27, 2024.

Goals: E. Nilsson (26'), I. Dirdal (75'), N. Akgün (81').

Linköping W controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.