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Växjö W vs Lidköping W — Elitettan 2021

Växjö W
Växjö W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Lidköping W
Lidköping W
6/4/2022ElitettanElitettan · Round 10Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Växjö W73%
×Draw15%
Lidköping W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Växjö W
2.95
Lidköping W
1.18

Växjö W creates 150% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

creates per match

Växjö W
3.85
Lidköping W
1.67

allows per match

Växjö W
0.69
Lidköping W
2.04

finishing

Växjö W+0.00on par
Lidköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Växjö W ↓

Lidköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Växjö W or draw
87%
Växjö W or Lidköping W
85%
Draw or Lidköping W
27%

Winning margin

Växjö W wins by 2+
52%
Lidköping W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Växjö W 1+ goals
95%
Växjö W 2+ goals
79%
Växjö W 3+ goals
55%
Lidköping W 1+ goals
69%
Lidköping W 2+ goals
33%
Lidköping W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Växjö W (draw refunded)
85%
Lidköping W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Växjö W at home — creates 3.85, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Lidköping W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.04 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Växjö W attack 3.85 + Lidköping W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.95

Lidköping W attack 1.67 + Växjö W defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Växjö W scores more
73%
level
15%
Lidköping W scores more
13%

Växjö W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Växjö W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Växjö W 3–2 Lidköping W

Växjö W beat Lidköping W 3-2 in Elitettan on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Visma Arena in Växjö.