Växjö W 7–1 Gamla Upsala W: Result & Stats

Växjö W

FT

7 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Gamla Upsala W

5/21/2022

Elitettan · Round 8Visma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Växjö W75%

×Draw14%

Gamla Upsala W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Växjö WExpected goals in this matchGamla Upsala W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

1.05

Växjö W

2.96

Gamla Upsala W

1.05

Växjö W creates 182% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 57 away

3.85

creates per match

1.42

0.69

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Växjö W

3.85

Gamla Upsala W

1.42

allows per match

Växjö W

0.69

Gamla Upsala W

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Växjö W+0.00on par

Gamla Upsala W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Växjö W ↓

Gamla Upsala W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Växjö W or draw

89%

Växjö W or Gamla Upsala W

86%

Draw or Gamla Upsala W

25%

Winning margin

Växjö W wins by 2+

55%

Gamla Upsala W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Växjö W 1+ goals

95%

Växjö W 2+ goals

79%

Växjö W 3+ goals

55%

Gamla Upsala W 1+ goals

65%

Gamla Upsala W 2+ goals

28%

Gamla Upsala W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Växjö W (draw refunded)

88%

Gamla Upsala W (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Växjö W at home — creates 3.85, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Gamla Upsala W away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Växjö W attack 3.85 + Gamla Upsala W defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.96

Gamla Upsala W attack 1.42 + Växjö W defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Växjö W scores more

75%

level

14%

Gamla Upsala W scores more

11%

Växjö W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Växjö W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff