Vauxhall Motors 4–0 Wythenshawe Town

Vauxhall Motors

FT

4 – 0

Wythenshawe Town

2/1/2025

League #54 · Northern West - 30The vanEupen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vauxhall Motors58%

×Draw21%

Wythenshawe Town21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vauxhall MotorsExpected goals in this matchWythenshawe Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.17

Vauxhall Motors

2.06

Wythenshawe Town

1.17

Vauxhall Motors creates 76% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

1.71

creates per match

0.76

1.57

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Vauxhall Motors

1.71

Wythenshawe Town

0.76

allows per match

Vauxhall Motors

1.57

Wythenshawe Town

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vauxhall Motors+0.00on par

Wythenshawe Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vauxhall Motors ↓

Wythenshawe Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vauxhall Motors or draw

79%

Vauxhall Motors or Wythenshawe Town

79%

Draw or Wythenshawe Town

42%

Winning margin

Vauxhall Motors wins by 2+

35%

Wythenshawe Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vauxhall Motors 1+ goals

87%

Vauxhall Motors 2+ goals

61%

Vauxhall Motors 3+ goals

34%

Wythenshawe Town 1+ goals

69%

Wythenshawe Town 2+ goals

33%

Wythenshawe Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vauxhall Motors (draw refunded)

73%

Wythenshawe Town (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vauxhall Motors at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Wythenshawe Town away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vauxhall Motors attack 1.71 + Wythenshawe Town defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.06

Wythenshawe Town attack 0.76 + Vauxhall Motors defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vauxhall Motors scores more

58%

level

21%

Wythenshawe Town scores more

21%

Vauxhall Motors at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vauxhall Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff