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Vautour Club vs Missile — Championnat D1 2022

Vautour Club
Vautour Club
FT
1 – 1
Missile
Missile
10/28/2022Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 1Stade Augustin Monédan de Sibang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vautour Club50%
×Draw26%
Missile24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vautour Club
1.49
Missile
0.94

Vautour Club creates 59% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vautour Club
1.12
Missile
1.00

allows per match

Vautour Club
0.88
Missile
1.86

finishing

Vautour Club+0.00on par
Missile+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vautour Club ↓

Missile →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vautour Club or draw
76%
Vautour Club or Missile
74%
Draw or Missile
50%

Winning margin

Vautour Club wins by 2+
25%
Missile wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vautour Club 1+ goals
77%
Vautour Club 2+ goals
44%
Vautour Club 3+ goals
19%
Missile 1+ goals
61%
Missile 2+ goals
24%
Missile 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vautour Club (draw refunded)
68%
Missile (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vautour Club at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

Missile away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vautour Club attack 1.12 + Missile defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Missile attack 1.00 + Vautour Club defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vautour Club scores more
50%
level
26%
Missile scores more
24%

Vautour Club at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vautour Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vautour Club vs Missile

Vautour Club and Missile drew 1-1 in Championnat D1 on October 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Augustin Monédan de Sibang in Libreville.