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Vatanspor vs Holstebro — League #127 2026

Vatanspor
Vatanspor
FT
0 – 0
Holstebro
Holstebro
4/22/2017League #127League #127 · Round 19Sødalskolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vatanspor35%
×Draw21%
Holstebro43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vatanspor
1.83
Holstebro
2.04

Holstebro creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Vatanspor
1.88
Holstebro
2.21

allows per match

Vatanspor
1.88
Holstebro
1.79

finishing

Vatanspor+0.00on par
Holstebro+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vatanspor ↓

Holstebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Vatanspor or draw
57%
Vatanspor or Holstebro
79%
Draw or Holstebro
65%

Winning margin

Vatanspor wins by 2+
18%
Holstebro wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Vatanspor 1+ goals
84%
Vatanspor 2+ goals
54%
Vatanspor 3+ goals
28%
Holstebro 1+ goals
87%
Holstebro 2+ goals
60%
Holstebro 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Vatanspor (draw refunded)
45%
Holstebro (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vatanspor at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Holstebro away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vatanspor attack 1.88 + Holstebro defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.83

Holstebro attack 2.21 + Vatanspor defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vatanspor scores more
35%
level
21%
Holstebro scores more
43%

Holstebro at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #127: Vatanspor 0–0 Holstebro

Vatanspor and Holstebro drew 0-0 in League #127 on April 22, 2017.

The match was played at Sødalskolen in Brabrand.