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Holstebro vs Vatanspor — League #127 2026

Holstebro
Holstebro
FT
0 – 2
Vatanspor
Vatanspor
9/30/2018League #127League #127 · Round 9Idrætscenter Vest

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Holstebro56%
×Draw19%
Vatanspor25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstebro
2.57
Vatanspor
1.68

Holstebro creates 53% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Holstebro
2.94
Vatanspor
1.80

allows per match

Holstebro
1.56
Vatanspor
2.20

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par
Vatanspor+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Vatanspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw
75%
Holstebro or Vatanspor
81%
Draw or Vatanspor
44%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+
36%
Vatanspor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals
92%
Holstebro 2+ goals
72%
Holstebro 3+ goals
47%
Vatanspor 1+ goals
81%
Vatanspor 2+ goals
50%
Vatanspor 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)
70%
Vatanspor (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 2.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Vatanspor away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 2.94 + Vatanspor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.57

Vatanspor attack 1.80 + Holstebro defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Holstebro scores more
56%
level
19%
Vatanspor scores more
25%

Holstebro at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holstebro vs Vatanspor

Vatanspor beat Holstebro 2-0 in League #127 on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Idrætscenter Vest in Holstebro.