Vastseliina 5–0 Vana Hea Puur: Result & Stats | Cup

Vastseliina

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Vana Hea Puur

A. Palok 76'

O. Lepik 43'

O. Ossipov 25', 12'

J. Lendsaar 2'

6/12/2024

Cup · 64th FinalsVastseliina Gümnaasiumi jalgpalliväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vastseliina78%

×Draw11%

Vana Hea Puur11%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VastseliinaExpected goals in this matchVana Hea Puur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

6.10

2.50

Vastseliina

6.10

Vana Hea Puur

2.50

Vastseliina creates 144% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

0.20

4.80

allows per match

10.20

creates per match

Vastseliina

2.00

Vana Hea Puur

0.20

allows per match

Vastseliina

4.80

Vana Hea Puur

10.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vastseliina+0.00on par

Vana Hea Puur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over99
Under1

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes91
No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vastseliina ↓

Vana Hea Puur →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–00%

1–10%

1–21%

1–31%

1–40%

2–01%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–02%

4–15%

4–26%

4–35%

4–43%

Most likely 4–2 (6%) · grid covers 42% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

100%0%2.5

99%1%3.5

95%5%4.5

88%12%

Double chance

Vastseliina or draw

89%

Vastseliina or Vana Hea Puur

89%

Draw or Vana Hea Puur

22%

Winning margin

Vastseliina wins by 2+

62%

Vana Hea Puur wins by 2+

Team goals

Vastseliina 1+ goals

100%

Vastseliina 2+ goals

97%

Vastseliina 3+ goals

90%

Vana Hea Puur 1+ goals

92%

Vana Hea Puur 2+ goals

71%

Vana Hea Puur 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Vastseliina (draw refunded)

87%

Vana Hea Puur (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

91%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vastseliina at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.80 · 5 matches

Vana Hea Puur away — creates 0.20, concedes 10.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vastseliina attack 2.00 + Vana Hea Puur defence 10.20 → ÷2 → 6.10

Vana Hea Puur attack 0.20 + Vastseliina defence 4.80 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 78%?"

Vastseliina scores more

78%

level

11%

Vana Hea Puur scores more

11%

Vastseliina at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Vastseliina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

25'

43'

76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff