Vastseliina 4–0 Teleios: Result & Stats | Cup

Vastseliina

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Teleios

M. Silm 79'

R. Saarniit 78', 50'

R. Juur 2'

7/10/2021

Cup · 64th FinalsVastseliina Gümnaasiumi jalgpalliväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vastseliina59%

×Draw16%

Teleios25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VastseliinaExpected goals in this matchTeleios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.83

2.56

Vastseliina

3.83

Teleios

2.56

Vastseliina creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.33

4.80

allows per match

5.67

creates per match

Vastseliina

2.00

Teleios

0.33

allows per match

Vastseliina

4.80

Teleios

5.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vastseliina+0.00on par

Teleios+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes90
No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vastseliina ↓

Teleios →

0–00%

0–10%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–32%

1–41%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–02%

4–14%

4–26%

4–35%

4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

87%13%4.5

74%26%

Double chance

Vastseliina or draw

75%

Vastseliina or Teleios

84%

Draw or Teleios

41%

Winning margin

Vastseliina wins by 2+

41%

Teleios wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vastseliina 1+ goals

98%

Vastseliina 2+ goals

88%

Vastseliina 3+ goals

71%

Teleios 1+ goals

92%

Teleios 2+ goals

72%

Teleios 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Vastseliina (draw refunded)

70%

Teleios (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

88%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vastseliina at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.80 · 5 matches

Teleios away — creates 0.33, concedes 5.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vastseliina attack 2.00 + Teleios defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 3.83

Teleios attack 0.33 + Vastseliina defence 4.80 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vastseliina scores more

59%

level

16%

Teleios scores more

25%

Vastseliina at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vastseliina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

78'

79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff