Vastseliina vs JK Tabasalu — Cup 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Vastseliina10%
JK Tabasalu80%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
JK Tabasalu creates 169% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 9 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over95
- Under5
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes82
- No18
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vastseliina ↓
Most likely 1–4 (7%) · grid covers 58% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vastseliina at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.80 · 5 matches
JK Tabasalu away — creates 4.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vastseliina attack 2.00 + JK Tabasalu defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78
JK Tabasalu attack 4.78 + Vastseliina defence 4.80 → ÷2 → 4.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 80%?"
JK Tabasalu at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 80% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Vastseliina host JK Tabasalu on Saturday, 5 February 2022 at 12:00. The match is part of the Cup 2020/2021 season.
Vastseliina vs JK Tabasalu — Match Preview
Vastseliina face JK Tabasalu on February 5, 2022 in this Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Vastseliina host JK Tabasalu at Barrus Arena Võru.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.