Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Västra Frölunda vs Utsikten — Svenska Cupen 2019

Västra Frölunda
Västra Frölunda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Utsikten
Utsikten
6/16/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundRuddalens IP 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Västra Frölunda59%
×Draw19%
Utsikten22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Västra Frölunda
2.38
Utsikten
1.40

Västra Frölunda creates 70% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Västra Frölunda
2.75
Utsikten
1.54

allows per match

Västra Frölunda
1.25
Utsikten
2.00

finishing

Västra Frölunda+0.00on par
Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Västra Frölunda ↓

Utsikten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Västra Frölunda or draw
78%
Västra Frölunda or Utsikten
81%
Draw or Utsikten
41%

Winning margin

Västra Frölunda wins by 2+
37%
Utsikten wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Västra Frölunda 1+ goals
91%
Västra Frölunda 2+ goals
68%
Västra Frölunda 3+ goals
42%
Utsikten 1+ goals
75%
Utsikten 2+ goals
41%
Utsikten 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Västra Frölunda (draw refunded)
73%
Utsikten (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Västra Frölunda at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Västra Frölunda attack 2.75 + Utsikten defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Utsikten attack 1.54 + Västra Frölunda defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Västra Frölunda scores more
59%
level
19%
Utsikten scores more
22%

Västra Frölunda at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Västra Frölunda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Västra Frölunda 0–1 Utsikten

Utsikten beat Västra Frölunda 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on June 16, 2021.

The match was played at Ruddalens IP 1 in Västra Frölunda.