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Vasteras SK FK vs Syrianska FC — Superettan 2018

Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
5/16/2019SuperettanSuperettan · Round 8Solid Park Arena (Västerås)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vasteras SK FK57%
×Draw23%
Syrianska FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasteras SK FK
1.86
Syrianska FC
1.00

Vasteras SK FK creates 86% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK
1.72
Syrianska FC
0.87

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK
1.14
Syrianska FC
2.00

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par
Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

Syrianska FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw
80%
Vasteras SK FK or Syrianska FC
77%
Draw or Syrianska FC
43%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
33%
Syrianska FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
84%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
55%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
28%
Syrianska FC 1+ goals
63%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
26%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
74%
Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.72 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Syrianska FC attack 0.87 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more
57%
level
23%
Syrianska FC scores more
20%

Vasteras SK FK at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Vasteras SK FK 0–0 Syrianska FC

Vasteras SK FK and Syrianska FC drew 0-0 in Superettan on May 16, 2019.

The match was played at Solid Park Arena (Västerås).