Vasteras SK FK 4–1 Skövde AIK: Result & Stats

Vasteras SK FK

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Skövde AIK

V. Granath 77', 35' (pen), 20' (pen)

S. Johansson 69'

J. Cooper 21'

9/10/2022

Superettan · Round 23Iver Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vasteras SK FK54%

×Draw23%

Skövde AIK23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasteras SK FKExpected goals in this matchSkövde AIK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.13

Vasteras SK FK

1.86

Skövde AIK

1.13

Vasteras SK FK creates 65% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 47 away

1.72

creates per match

1.11

1.14

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.72

Skövde AIK

1.11

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.14

Skövde AIK

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

Skövde AIK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw

77%

Vasteras SK FK or Skövde AIK

77%

Draw or Skövde AIK

46%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

31%

Skövde AIK wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

84%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

55%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

28%

Skövde AIK 1+ goals

68%

Skövde AIK 2+ goals

31%

Skövde AIK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

70%

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.72 + Skövde AIK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Skövde AIK attack 1.11 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more

54%

level

23%

Skövde AIK scores more

23%

Vasteras SK FK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

V. GranathPenalty

21'

J. Cooper

35'

V. GranathPenalty

54'

Martin Gambos

57'

Aldin Basic

68'

F. Schyberg← A. Basic

68'

I. Kouame← V. Granath

68'

69'

76'

77'

80'

83'

88'

O. Lennerskog← Y. Fellrath

88'

H. Engström← E. Abraham

89'

Sandberg Miguel← O. Edlund

90+2'

V. Prodell← V. Granath

90+2'

D. Burubwa← S. Johansson

90+2'

M. Larsson← S. Gefvert

Vasteras3-5-2

Skövde4-4-2

16

⚽

Cooper

18

▼

Fellrath

17

Holmén

4

▼

Basic

22

Lindell

10

▼

Abraham

14

▼

Mörk

9

▼

15

6

1

13

2

4

7

15

▼

Edlund

11

▼

Gefvert

8

Ask

20

▼

Gamboš

6

⚽

▼

Johansson

14

⚽3

▼

Granath

3

Douglas

Manager: K. Karlsson

80'▲D. Jajić←▼M. Gamboš

89'▲Sandberg Miguel←▼O. Edlund

90+2'▲V. Prodell←▼V. Granath

90+2'▲D. Burubwa←▼S. Johansson

90+2'▲M. Larsson←▼S. Gefvert

Vasteras SK FK substitutes

23Jajić33Miguel9Prodell27Burubwa31Larsson22Pawlik34Wahl

Manager: T. Linderoth

68'▲F. Schyberg←▼A. Basic

68'▲I. Kouame←▼V. Granath

68'▲L. Mattsson←▼M. Mörk

88'▲O. Lennerskog←▼Y. Fellrath

88'▲H. Engström←▼E. Abraham

Skövde AIK substitutes

3Schyberg5Kouame11Mattsson8Lennerskog13Engström7Lilja30Engelbrektsson