Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS — Allsvenskan 2018
80% of Orgryte IS’s matches go over 2.5 goals
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Vasteras SK FK60%
Orgryte IS18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Vasteras SK FK creates 100% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 7 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vasteras SK FK ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches
Orgryte IS away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vasteras SK FK attack 1.29 + Orgryte IS defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.00
Orgryte IS attack 0.43 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 60%?"
Vasteras SK FK at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 60% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Orgryte IS score first in only 30% of matches
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
AIK Stockholm
IFK Norrkoping
Malmo FF
Hammarby FF
BK Hacken
Ostersunds FK
Djurgardens IF
GIF Sundsvall
Orebro SK
Kalmar FF
IFK Goteborg
IF Elfsborg
Sirius
IF Brommapojkarna
Dalkurd FFIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Vasteras SK FK host Orgryte IS on Friday, 24 July 2026 at 17:00. The match is part of the Allsvenskan 2018/2019 season.
Vasteras SK FK face Orgryte IS (Allsvenskan)
Allsvenskan returns with Vasteras SK FK hosting Orgryte IS. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Vasteras SK FK host Orgryte IS at Hitachi Energy Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.