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Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2018

Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
4/8/2025SuperettanSuperettan · Round 2Hitachi Energy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Vasteras SK FK46%
×Draw25%
Orgryte IS29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasteras SK FK
1.59
Orgryte IS
1.21

Vasteras SK FK creates 31% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 122 away

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK
1.72
Orgryte IS
1.29

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK
1.14
Orgryte IS
1.46

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw
71%
Vasteras SK FK or Orgryte IS
75%
Draw or Orgryte IS
54%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
24%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
80%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
47%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
21%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
70%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
34%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
61%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.72 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more
46%
level
25%
Orgryte IS scores more
29%

Vasteras SK FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS

Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS drew 1-1 in Superettan on April 8, 2025.

The match was played at Hitachi Energy Arena in Vasteras.