Vasteras SK FK 2–3 Gais: Result & Stats

Vasteras SK FK

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Gais

9/14/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 22Hitachi Energy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vasteras SK FK36%

×Draw26%

Gais39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasteras SK FKExpected goals in this matchGais

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.40

Vasteras SK FK

1.33

Gais

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

1.29

creates per match

1.22

1.57

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.29

Gais

1.22

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.57

Gais

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

Gais →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw

61%

Vasteras SK FK or Gais

74%

Draw or Gais

64%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

16%

Gais wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

74%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

38%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

15%

Gais 1+ goals

75%

Gais 2+ goals

41%

Gais 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

48%

Gais (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Gais away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.29 + Gais defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gais attack 1.22 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more

36%

level

26%

Gais scores more

39%

Gais at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff