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VAST vs Rukh Vynnyky II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

VAST
VAST
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Rukh Vynnyky II
Rukh Vynnyky II
8/20/2023Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 3Stadion FSK Ivan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

VAST33%
×Draw26%
Rukh Vynnyky II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VAST
1.25
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.41

Rukh Vynnyky II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

VAST
1.36
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.18

allows per match

VAST
1.64
Rukh Vynnyky II
1.14

finishing

VAST+0.00on par
Rukh Vynnyky II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VAST ↓

Rukh Vynnyky II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

VAST or draw
59%
VAST or Rukh Vynnyky II
74%
Draw or Rukh Vynnyky II
67%

Winning margin

VAST wins by 2+
14%
Rukh Vynnyky II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

VAST 1+ goals
71%
VAST 2+ goals
36%
VAST 3+ goals
13%
Rukh Vynnyky II 1+ goals
76%
Rukh Vynnyky II 2+ goals
41%
Rukh Vynnyky II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

VAST (draw refunded)
45%
Rukh Vynnyky II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VAST at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Rukh Vynnyky II away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VAST attack 1.36 + Rukh Vynnyky II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rukh Vynnyky II attack 1.18 + VAST defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

VAST scores more
33%
level
26%
Rukh Vynnyky II scores more
41%

Rukh Vynnyky II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: VAST 0–3 Rukh Vynnyky II

Rukh Vynnyky II beat VAST 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FSK Ivan in Odessa.