Văsieni 0–5 Cahul: Result & Stats | Cupa

Văsieni

0 – 5

Cahul

8/15/2020

Cupa · 1st RoundStadionul Sătesc Văsieni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Văsieni7%

×Draw11%

Cahul83%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VăsieniExpected goals in this matchCahul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

3.33

Văsieni

0.88

Cahul

3.33

Cahul creates 278% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.75

creates per match

3.40

3.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Văsieni

0.75

Cahul

3.40

allows per match

Văsieni

3.25

Cahul

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Văsieni+0.00on par

Cahul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Văsieni ↓

Cahul →

0–02%

0–15%

0–29%

0–310%

0–48%

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–34%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Văsieni or draw

17%

Văsieni or Cahul

89%

Draw or Cahul

93%

Winning margin

Văsieni wins by 2+

Cahul wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Văsieni 1+ goals

59%

Văsieni 2+ goals

22%

Văsieni 3+ goals

Cahul 1+ goals

96%

Cahul 2+ goals

84%

Cahul 3+ goals

63%

Draw no bet

Văsieni (draw refunded)

Cahul (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Văsieni at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Cahul away — creates 3.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Văsieni attack 0.75 + Cahul defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Cahul attack 3.40 + Văsieni defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 83%?"

Văsieni scores more

level

11%

Cahul scores more

83%

Cahul at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Cahul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff