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Vasco U17 vs Palmeiras U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Vasco U17
Vasco U17
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Palmeiras U17
Palmeiras U17
Y. Falcao 90'
Thauan 85', 71'
Luiz Felipe 45'
6/25/2025Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Nivaldo Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vasco U1729%
×Draw24%
Palmeiras U1747%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco U17
1.29
Palmeiras U17
1.71

Palmeiras U17 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vasco U17
1.36
Palmeiras U17
2.06

allows per match

Vasco U17
1.36
Palmeiras U17
1.22

finishing

Vasco U17+0.00on par
Palmeiras U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco U17 ↓

Palmeiras U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vasco U17 or draw
53%
Vasco U17 or Palmeiras U17
76%
Draw or Palmeiras U17
71%

Winning margin

Vasco U17 wins by 2+
12%
Palmeiras U17 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Vasco U17 1+ goals
72%
Vasco U17 2+ goals
37%
Vasco U17 3+ goals
14%
Palmeiras U17 1+ goals
82%
Palmeiras U17 2+ goals
51%
Palmeiras U17 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)
38%
Palmeiras U17 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco U17 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Palmeiras U17 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco U17 attack 1.36 + Palmeiras U17 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Palmeiras U17 attack 2.06 + Vasco U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vasco U17 scores more
29%
level
24%
Palmeiras U17 scores more
47%

Palmeiras U17 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Palmeiras U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Luiz Felipe
71'
Thauan
85'
Thauan
90'
Y. Falcao

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro U17: Vasco U17 1–3 Palmeiras U17

Palmeiras U17 beat Vasco U17 3-1 in Brasileiro U17 on June 25, 2025.

Goals: Luiz Felipe (45'), Thauan (71', 85'), Y. Falcao (90').

The match was played at Estádio Nivaldo Pereira in Nova Iguaçu, Rio de Janeiro.