Vasco U17 3–2 Internacional U17: Result & Stats

Vasco U17

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Internacional U17

G. Medina 55', 39'

Leo Felix 15'

F. Zechmeister 89'

Kaua Cavalcanti 38'

5/21/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Nivaldo Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vasco U1750%

×Draw23%

Internacional U1727%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco U17Expected goals in this matchInternacional U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.25

Vasco U17

1.78

Internacional U17

1.25

Vasco U17 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

1.36

creates per match

1.15

1.36

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Vasco U17

1.36

Internacional U17

1.15

allows per match

Vasco U17

1.36

Internacional U17

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco U17+0.00on par

Internacional U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco U17 ↓

Internacional U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vasco U17 or draw

73%

Vasco U17 or Internacional U17

77%

Draw or Internacional U17

50%

Winning margin

Vasco U17 wins by 2+

27%

Internacional U17 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vasco U17 1+ goals

83%

Vasco U17 2+ goals

53%

Vasco U17 3+ goals

26%

Internacional U17 1+ goals

71%

Internacional U17 2+ goals

36%

Internacional U17 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)

65%

Internacional U17 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco U17 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Internacional U17 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco U17 attack 1.36 + Internacional U17 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.78

Internacional U17 attack 1.15 + Vasco U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vasco U17 scores more

50%

level

23%

Internacional U17 scores more

27%

Vasco U17 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

38'

39'

55'

89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff