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Vasco U17 vs Gremio U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Vasco U17
Vasco U17
Preview
20:00
Gremio U17
Gremio U17
9/5/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 15
51%
Vasco U17
model favours
51%22%27%

Gremio U17 score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vasco U1751%
×Draw22%
Gremio U1727%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco U17
1.92
Gremio U17
1.34

Vasco U17 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vasco U17
1.36
Gremio U17
1.32

allows per match

Vasco U17
1.36
Gremio U17
2.47

finishing

Vasco U17+0.00on par
Gremio U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco U17 ↓

Gremio U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vasco U17 or draw
73%
Vasco U17 or Gremio U17
78%
Draw or Gremio U17
49%

Winning margin

Vasco U17 wins by 2+
29%
Gremio U17 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vasco U17 1+ goals
85%
Vasco U17 2+ goals
57%
Vasco U17 3+ goals
30%
Gremio U17 1+ goals
74%
Gremio U17 2+ goals
39%
Gremio U17 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)
65%
Gremio U17 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco U17 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Gremio U17 away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco U17 attack 1.36 + Gremio U17 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.92

Gremio U17 attack 1.32 + Vasco U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vasco U17 scores more
51%
level
22%
Gremio U17 scores more
27%

Vasco U17 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Vasco U17’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 73% of Gremio U17’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
LLDWD
U17
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vasco U17 vs Gremio U17 — Match Preview

Vasco U17 face Gremio U17 on September 5, 2026 in this Brasileiro U17 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.