Gremio U17 1–4 Vasco U17: Result & Stats

Gremio U17

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Vasco U17

H. Vasconselos 12'

Gabriel Soares 77', 17'

L. Miranda 65'

Pedro Augusto 50'

7/8/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Airton Ferreira da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gremio U1748%

×Draw21%

Vasco U1731%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gremio U17Expected goals in this matchVasco U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.67

Gremio U17

2.10

Vasco U17

1.67

Gremio U17 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

2.60

creates per match

1.73

1.60

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Gremio U17

2.60

Vasco U17

1.73

allows per match

Gremio U17

1.60

Vasco U17

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gremio U17+0.00on par

Vasco U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gremio U17 ↓

Vasco U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Gremio U17 or draw

69%

Gremio U17 or Vasco U17

79%

Draw or Vasco U17

52%

Winning margin

Gremio U17 wins by 2+

28%

Vasco U17 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Gremio U17 1+ goals

88%

Gremio U17 2+ goals

62%

Gremio U17 3+ goals

35%

Vasco U17 1+ goals

81%

Vasco U17 2+ goals

50%

Vasco U17 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Gremio U17 (draw refunded)

61%

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gremio U17 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Vasco U17 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gremio U17 attack 2.60 + Vasco U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.10

Vasco U17 attack 1.73 + Gremio U17 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gremio U17 scores more

48%

level

21%

Vasco U17 scores more

31%

Gremio U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gremio U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

17'

50'

65'

77'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff