Vasco U17 1–0 Fortaleza U17: Result & Stats

Vasco U17

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortaleza U17

6/18/2025

Brasileiro U17 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Nivaldo Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vasco U1752%

×Draw24%

Fortaleza U1724%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco U17Expected goals in this matchFortaleza U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.09

Vasco U17

1.71

Fortaleza U17

1.09

Vasco U17 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.36

creates per match

0.83

1.36

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Vasco U17

1.36

Fortaleza U17

0.83

allows per match

Vasco U17

1.36

Fortaleza U17

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco U17+0.00on par

Fortaleza U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco U17 ↓

Fortaleza U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vasco U17 or draw

76%

Vasco U17 or Fortaleza U17

76%

Draw or Fortaleza U17

48%

Winning margin

Vasco U17 wins by 2+

28%

Fortaleza U17 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vasco U17 1+ goals

82%

Vasco U17 2+ goals

51%

Vasco U17 3+ goals

24%

Fortaleza U17 1+ goals

66%

Fortaleza U17 2+ goals

30%

Fortaleza U17 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)

68%

Fortaleza U17 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco U17 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Fortaleza U17 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco U17 attack 1.36 + Fortaleza U17 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.71

Fortaleza U17 attack 0.83 + Vasco U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vasco U17 scores more

52%

level

24%

Fortaleza U17 scores more

24%

Vasco U17 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff