Vasco U17 2–1 Cuiaba U17: Result & Stats

Vasco U17

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cuiaba U17

D. Minete 54'

Lucas Rafael 40'

Widney 64'

3/25/2025

Copa do Brasil U17 · 2nd RoundEstádio Nivaldo Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vasco U1783%

×Draw11%

Cuiaba U176%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco U17Expected goals in this matchCuiaba U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

0.75

Vasco U17

3.13

Cuiaba U17

0.75

Vasco U17 creates 317% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

3.25

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Vasco U17

3.25

Cuiaba U17

1.00

allows per match

Vasco U17

0.50

Cuiaba U17

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco U17+0.00on par

Cuiaba U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco U17 ↓

Cuiaba U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Vasco U17 or draw

94%

Vasco U17 or Cuiaba U17

89%

Draw or Cuiaba U17

17%

Winning margin

Vasco U17 wins by 2+

65%

Cuiaba U17 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Vasco U17 1+ goals

95%

Vasco U17 2+ goals

81%

Vasco U17 3+ goals

59%

Cuiaba U17 1+ goals

53%

Cuiaba U17 2+ goals

17%

Cuiaba U17 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)

93%

Cuiaba U17 (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco U17 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Cuiaba U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco U17 attack 3.25 + Cuiaba U17 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Cuiaba U17 attack 1.00 + Vasco U17 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Vasco U17 scores more

83%

level

11%

Cuiaba U17 scores more

6%

Vasco U17 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Lucas Rafael

54'

D. Minete

64'

Widney

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff