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Vasco U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17 — Brasileiro U17 2026

Vasco U17
Vasco U17
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17
5/31/2026Brasileiro U17Brasileiro U17 · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Vasco U1739%
×Draw23%
Atlético Mineiro U1737%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco U17
1.66
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

creates per match

Vasco U17
1.36
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.86

allows per match

Vasco U17
1.36
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.95

finishing

Vasco U17+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco U17 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vasco U17 or draw
63%
Vasco U17 or Atlético Mineiro U17
77%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro U17
61%

Winning margin

Vasco U17 wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vasco U17 1+ goals
81%
Vasco U17 2+ goals
49%
Vasco U17 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
80%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
48%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vasco U17 (draw refunded)
51%
Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco U17 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Atlético Mineiro U17 away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco U17 attack 1.36 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.66

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 1.86 + Vasco U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vasco U17 scores more
39%
level
23%
Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
37%

Vasco U17 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vasco U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasco U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17

Vasco U17 and Atlético Mineiro U17 drew 1-1 in Brasileiro U17 on May 31, 2026.