Vasco DA Gama 1–2 A. Italiano: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

A. Italiano

Brenner 45'

F. Troyansky 86' (pen)

M. Fuentes 62'

4/15/2026

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vasco DA Gama56%

×Draw24%

A. Italiano19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchA. Italiano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.88

Vasco DA Gama

1.69

A. Italiano

0.88

Vasco DA Gama creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.71

creates per match

1.33

0.43

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.71

A. Italiano

1.33

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

0.43

A. Italiano

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

A. Italiano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

A. Italiano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

81%

Vasco DA Gama or A. Italiano

76%

Draw or A. Italiano

44%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

31%

A. Italiano wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

82%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

50%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

24%

A. Italiano 1+ goals

59%

A. Italiano 2+ goals

22%

A. Italiano 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

74%

A. Italiano (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

A. Italiano away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.71 + A. Italiano defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

A. Italiano attack 1.33 + Vasco DA Gama defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

56%

level

24%

A. Italiano scores more

19%

Vasco DA Gama at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Troyansky

A. Italiano · F

8.2

Match Events

13'

JPCard upgrade

15'

35'

35'

43'

45'

46'

Thiago Mendes← M. Hinestroza

46'

Paulo Henrique← N. Moreira

46'

P. Guajardo← O. J. Rojas Munoz

51'

Marco Collao

60'

D. Coelho← G. Chiaverano

60'

R. Cabral← M. Collao

62'

M. Fuentes↳ F. Troyansky

65'

David← C. Spinelli

66'

Andres Gomez← Brenner

71'

Andrés Gómez

78'

N. Aedo← E. Matus

81'

Franco TroyanskyPenalty confirmed

83'

Carlos Cuesta

84'

Hugo Moura

86'

F. TroyanskyPenalty

88'

Adson← J. Rodriguez

90+7'

Marcelo Ortíz

90+3'

Nicolás Aedo

90+1'

D. Monreal← F. Troyansky

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoA.

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots11

1.14Expected Goals (xG)1.43

5Corners4

6Fouls21

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target2

4Off Target6

3Blocked3

8Inside Box6

2Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

247Total Passes330

194Accurate Passes270

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

0.32Goals Prevented0.32

Discipline

6Fouls21

4Yellow Cards4

2Red Cards0

0Offsides1