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Vasco da Gama Vidigueira vs Leixoes — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
FT
0 – 5
Leixoes
Leixoes
10/1/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Vidigueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira11%
×Draw18%
Leixoes71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
0.78
Leixoes
2.27

Leixoes creates 191% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
0.75
Leixoes
2.30

allows per match

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
2.25
Leixoes
0.80

finishing

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira+0.00on par
Leixoes+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira ↓

Leixoes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira or draw
29%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira or Leixoes
82%
Draw or Leixoes
89%

Winning margin

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira wins by 2+
3%
Leixoes wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 1+ goals
54%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2+ goals
18%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 3+ goals
4%
Leixoes 1+ goals
90%
Leixoes 2+ goals
66%
Leixoes 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira (draw refunded)
14%
Leixoes (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Leixoes away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira attack 0.75 + Leixoes defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Leixoes attack 2.30 + Vasco da Gama Vidigueira defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira scores more
11%
level
18%
Leixoes scores more
71%

Leixoes at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Leixoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 0–5 Leixoes

Leixoes beat Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 5-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Vidigueira in Vidigueira.