Vasco da Gama Vidigueira vs Juventude Évora — League #460 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira13%
Juventude Évora53%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Juventude Évora creates 179% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under82
- Over18
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No79
- Yes21
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira ↓
Most likely 0–1 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches
Juventude Évora away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira attack 0.00 + Juventude Évora defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38
Juventude Évora attack 1.13 + Vasco da Gama Vidigueira defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Juventude Évora at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Juventude Évora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira host Juventude Évora on Sunday, 17 September 2023 at 14:00. The match is part of the League #460 2026/2027 season.
League #460: Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 0–2 Juventude Évora
Juventude Évora beat Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2-0 in League #460 on September 17, 2023.
Goals: Henrique Silva (24'), André Farinha (85').
The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Vidigueira in Vidigueira.