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Vasco da Gama Vidigueira vs Imortal Albufeira — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
FT
1 – 2
Imortal Albufeira
Imortal Albufeira
9/11/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Vidigueira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira16%
×Draw24%
Imortal Albufeira59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
0.71
Imortal Albufeira
1.63

Imortal Albufeira creates 130% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
0.75
Imortal Albufeira
1.00

allows per match

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
2.25
Imortal Albufeira
0.67

finishing

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira+0.00on par
Imortal Albufeira+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira ↓

Imortal Albufeira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira or draw
41%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira or Imortal Albufeira
76%
Draw or Imortal Albufeira
84%

Winning margin

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira wins by 2+
4%
Imortal Albufeira wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 1+ goals
51%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2+ goals
16%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 3+ goals
4%
Imortal Albufeira 1+ goals
80%
Imortal Albufeira 2+ goals
48%
Imortal Albufeira 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira (draw refunded)
21%
Imortal Albufeira (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Imortal Albufeira away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira attack 0.75 + Imortal Albufeira defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Imortal Albufeira attack 1.00 + Vasco da Gama Vidigueira defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira scores more
16%
level
24%
Imortal Albufeira scores more
59%

Imortal Albufeira at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Imortal Albufeira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasco da Gama Vidigueira vs Imortal Albufeira

Imortal Albufeira beat Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Vidigueira in Vidigueira.