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Vasco da Gama Vidigueira vs Estoril — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
FT
0 – 1
Estoril
Estoril
9/30/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Vidigueira (Vidigueira)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira13%
×Draw19%
Estoril69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
0.83
Estoril
2.21

Estoril creates 166% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
0.75
Estoril
2.17

allows per match

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
2.25
Estoril
0.92

finishing

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira+0.00on par
Estoril+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira ↓

Estoril →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira or draw
31%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira or Estoril
81%
Draw or Estoril
87%

Winning margin

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira wins by 2+
4%
Estoril wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 1+ goals
56%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2+ goals
20%
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 3+ goals
5%
Estoril 1+ goals
89%
Estoril 2+ goals
65%
Estoril 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira (draw refunded)
16%
Estoril (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Estoril away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira attack 0.75 + Estoril defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Estoril attack 2.17 + Vasco da Gama Vidigueira defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira scores more
13%
level
19%
Estoril scores more
69%

Estoril at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Estoril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 0–1 Estoril

Estoril beat Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Vidigueira (Vidigueira).