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Vasco da Gama AC vs Náuas — League #520 2026

Vasco da Gama AC
Vasco da Gama AC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Náuas
Náuas
2/24/2022League #520League #520 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vasco da Gama AC53%
×Draw21%
Náuas26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco da Gama AC
2.05
Náuas
1.39

Vasco da Gama AC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vasco da Gama AC
1.67
Náuas
0.78

allows per match

Vasco da Gama AC
2.00
Náuas
2.44

finishing

Vasco da Gama AC+0.00on par
Náuas+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco da Gama AC ↓

Náuas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vasco da Gama AC or draw
74%
Vasco da Gama AC or Náuas
79%
Draw or Náuas
47%

Winning margin

Vasco da Gama AC wins by 2+
31%
Náuas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vasco da Gama AC 1+ goals
87%
Vasco da Gama AC 2+ goals
61%
Vasco da Gama AC 3+ goals
33%
Náuas 1+ goals
75%
Náuas 2+ goals
40%
Náuas 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Vasco da Gama AC (draw refunded)
67%
Náuas (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco da Gama AC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Náuas away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco da Gama AC attack 1.67 + Náuas defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.05

Náuas attack 0.78 + Vasco da Gama AC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vasco da Gama AC scores more
53%
level
21%
Náuas scores more
26%

Vasco da Gama AC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vasco da Gama AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #520: Vasco da Gama AC 1–0 Náuas

Vasco da Gama AC beat Náuas 1-0 in League #520 on February 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes in Rio Branco, Acre.