Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna 1–0 Orgryte IS

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Orgryte IS

O. Nnamani 64'

10/12/2020

Superettan · Round 22Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna46%

×Draw26%

Orgryte IS28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasby UnitedAFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchOrgryte IS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.12

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna

1.52

Orgryte IS

1.12

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna creates 36% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 122 away

1.58

creates per match

1.29

0.95

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna

1.58

Orgryte IS

1.29

allows per match

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna

0.95

Orgryte IS

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna ↓

Orgryte IS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna or draw

72%

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna or Orgryte IS

74%

Draw or Orgryte IS

54%

Winning margin

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

23%

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

78%

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

45%

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

20%

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

67%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

31%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

62%

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.95 · 79 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna attack 1.58 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna scores more

46%

level

26%

Orgryte IS scores more

28%

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

L. Browning-Lagerfeldt← Aílton Almeida

28'

Chidi Dauda Omeje

43'

A. Kojic← A. Diarra

43'

H. Sjögrell← D. Paulson

46'

W. Jakobsson← J. Wicks

55'

F. Ali← Gabriel Somi

55'

V. Götesson← C. Omeje

61'

Adnan Kojić

62'

Anton Lans

64'

O. Nnamani

75'

B. Jobe← A. Bergmark-Wiberg

75'

M. El Kabir← H. Sjögrell

76'

J. Björkman← W. Loeper

90'

Ismet Lushaku

Statistics

VasbyOrgryte

Overview

4Corners8

Discipline

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

Superettan: Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna 1–0 Orgryte IS

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna beat Orgryte IS 1-0 in Superettan on October 12, 2020.

Goals: O. Nnamani (64').

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.

Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Superettan: Vasby UnitedAFC Eskilstuna 1–0 Orgryte IS