AFC Eskilstuna 4–3 Orgryte IS: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Orgryte IS

A. Brorsson 58' (OG)

A. Muhsin 49', 10'

V. Götesson 22'

A. Ahl-Holmström 85'

K. Ackermann 80'

A. Zeljkovic 37' (pen)

4/9/2022

Superettan · Round 2Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna46%

×Draw26%

Orgryte IS28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchOrgryte IS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.12

AFC Eskilstuna

1.52

Orgryte IS

1.12

AFC Eskilstuna creates 36% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 122 away

1.59

creates per match

1.29

0.95

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.59

Orgryte IS

1.29

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.95

Orgryte IS

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Orgryte IS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

72%

AFC Eskilstuna or Orgryte IS

74%

Draw or Orgryte IS

54%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

23%

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

78%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

45%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

20%

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

67%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

31%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

62%

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.59 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

46%

level

26%

Orgryte IS scores more

28%

AFC Eskilstuna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Muhsin

22'

V. Götesson

25'

Mikael Marques

37'

A. ZeljkovicPenalty

41'

York Rafael

49'

A. Muhsin

58'

A. BrorssonOwn goal

61'

K. Ackermann← E. Nohlgren

61'

A. Ahl-Holmström← S. Abraham

69'

L. Larsen← V. Fors

73'

E. Gustafson← N. Bärkroth

73'

O. Johansson← H. Dahlqvist

74'

A. Yakubu← V. Götesson

74'

Felix Michel← A. Hudu

80'

K. Ackermann

81'

L. Sabah← A. Alsanati

84'

A. Andreasson← A. Brorsson

85'

A. Ahl-Holmström

90+5'

Abdelkarim Chaouche

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AFCOrgryte

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots14

2Corners3

17Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots14

5On Target9

5Off Target5

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls13

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2