Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vasby United vs Kalmar FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Vasby United
Vasby United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
7/15/2017AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 15Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vasby United38%
×Draw26%
Kalmar FF37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasby United
1.36
Kalmar FF
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 115 away

creates per match

Vasby United
1.13
Kalmar FF
1.17

allows per match

Vasby United
1.52
Kalmar FF
1.59

finishing

Vasby United+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasby United ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vasby United or draw
63%
Vasby United or Kalmar FF
74%
Draw or Kalmar FF
62%

Winning margin

Vasby United wins by 2+
17%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vasby United 1+ goals
74%
Vasby United 2+ goals
39%
Vasby United 3+ goals
16%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
74%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
39%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vasby United (draw refunded)
51%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasby United at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.59 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasby United attack 1.13 + Kalmar FF defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kalmar FF attack 1.17 + Vasby United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vasby United scores more
38%
level
26%
Kalmar FF scores more
37%

Vasby United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vasby United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Vasby United 2–1 Kalmar FF

Vasby United beat Kalmar FF 2-1 in Allsvenskan on July 15, 2017.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.