Vasby United 2–4 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

Vasby United

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

AIK Stockholm

O. Camara 90+5'

K. Hodzic 8'

N. Bahoui 81', 78'

S. Larsson 65' (pen)

H. Goitom 29'

8/11/2019

Allsvenskan · Round 19Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vasby United31%

×Draw27%

AIK Stockholm43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasby UnitedExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.39

Vasby United

1.14

AIK Stockholm

1.39

AIK Stockholm creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 128 away

1.00

creates per match

1.27

1.50

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Vasby United

1.00

AIK Stockholm

1.27

allows per match

Vasby United

1.50

AIK Stockholm

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasby United+0.00on par

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasby United ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vasby United or draw

57%

Vasby United or AIK Stockholm

73%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

69%

Winning margin

Vasby United wins by 2+

12%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Vasby United 1+ goals

68%

Vasby United 2+ goals

32%

Vasby United 3+ goals

11%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

75%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

40%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Vasby United (draw refunded)

42%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasby United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasby United attack 1.00 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

AIK Stockholm attack 1.27 + Vasby United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vasby United scores more

31%

level

27%

AIK Stockholm scores more

43%

AIK Stockholm at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Bahoui

AIK Stockholm · F

8.8

Match Events

8'

K. Hodzic↳ D. Kozica

12'

Anton Saletros

29'

H. Goitom

35'

O. Nnamani← J. Björkman

49'

Kolbeinn Sigthorsson

57'

N. Bahoui← B. Hussein

57'

S. Larsson← Felix Michel

61'

T. Elyounoussi← K. Sigþórsson

65'

S. LarssonPenalty

78'

N. Bahoui↳ H. Rashidi

81'

N. Bahoui↳ T. Elyounoussi

90+3'

J. Lackéll← I. Lushaku

90+5'

O. Camara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VasbyAIK

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots21

4Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots21

6On Target6

7Off Target11

3Blocked4

8Inside Box18

8Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

451Total Passes459

373Accurate Passes399

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1