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Vasas vs Tatran Prešov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vasas
Vasas
CANC
13:00
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
2/1/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Vasas69%
×Draw18%
Tatran Prešov13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas
2.30
Tatran Prešov
0.86

Vasas creates 167% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vasas
2.50
Tatran Prešov
0.56

allows per match

Vasas
1.17
Tatran Prešov
2.11

finishing

Vasas+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vasas or draw
87%
Vasas or Tatran Prešov
82%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
31%

Winning margin

Vasas wins by 2+
46%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Vasas 1+ goals
90%
Vasas 2+ goals
67%
Vasas 3+ goals
40%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
58%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
21%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vasas (draw refunded)
85%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas attack 2.50 + Tatran Prešov defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.30

Tatran Prešov attack 0.56 + Vasas defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Vasas scores more
69%
level
18%
Tatran Prešov scores more
13%

Vasas at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Vasas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vasas vs Tatran Prešov — Match Preview

Vasas face Tatran Prešov on February 1, 2025 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.