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Vasas vs Kecskeméti TE — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vasas
Vasas
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kecskeméti TE
Kecskeméti TE
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vasas64%
×Draw17%
Kecskeméti TE18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas
2.70
Kecskeméti TE
1.40

Vasas creates 93% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vasas
3.00
Kecskeméti TE
2.00

allows per match

Vasas
0.80
Kecskeméti TE
2.40

finishing

Vasas+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas ↓

Kecskeméti TE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Vasas or draw
82%
Vasas or Kecskeméti TE
83%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE
36%

Winning margin

Vasas wins by 2+
44%
Kecskeméti TE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vasas 1+ goals
93%
Vasas 2+ goals
75%
Vasas 3+ goals
50%
Kecskeméti TE 1+ goals
75%
Kecskeméti TE 2+ goals
41%
Kecskeméti TE 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vasas (draw refunded)
78%
Kecskeméti TE (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Kecskeméti TE away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas attack 3.00 + Kecskeméti TE defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.70

Kecskeméti TE attack 2.00 + Vasas defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Vasas scores more
64%
level
17%
Kecskeméti TE scores more
18%

Vasas at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vasas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Vasas
Kecskeméti
Gabor Eros
Manager: Gabor Eros
Krisztian Timar
Manager: Krisztian Timar

Friendlies Clubs: Vasas 5–1 Kecskeméti TE

Vasas beat Kecskeméti TE 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.