Vasas 0–3 Fehérvár FC: Result & Stats

Vasas

FT

0 – 3

Fehérvár FC

1/27/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vasas50%

×Draw24%

Fehérvár FC26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VasasExpected goals in this matchFehérvár FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.19

Vasas

1.75

Fehérvár FC

1.19

Vasas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

2.50

creates per match

1.25

1.13

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Vasas

2.50

Fehérvár FC

1.25

allows per match

Vasas

1.13

Fehérvár FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasas+0.00on par

Fehérvár FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas ↓

Fehérvár FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vasas or draw

74%

Vasas or Fehérvár FC

76%

Draw or Fehérvár FC

50%

Winning margin

Vasas wins by 2+

27%

Fehérvár FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vasas 1+ goals

83%

Vasas 2+ goals

52%

Vasas 3+ goals

25%

Fehérvár FC 1+ goals

70%

Fehérvár FC 2+ goals

33%

Fehérvár FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vasas (draw refunded)

66%

Fehérvár FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Fehérvár FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas attack 2.50 + Fehérvár FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fehérvár FC attack 1.25 + Vasas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vasas scores more

50%

level

24%

Fehérvár FC scores more

26%

Vasas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vasas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff