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Vasas vs BVSC — League #272 2026

Vasas
Vasas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
BVSC
BVSC
4/20/2026League #272League #272 · Round 26Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vasas36%
×Draw27%
BVSC36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas
1.25
BVSC
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Vasas
1.50
BVSC
1.00

allows per match

Vasas
1.50
BVSC
1.00

finishing

Vasas+0.00on par
BVSC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas ↓

BVSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vasas or draw
64%
Vasas or BVSC
73%
Draw or BVSC
64%

Winning margin

Vasas wins by 2+
16%
BVSC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vasas 1+ goals
71%
Vasas 2+ goals
36%
Vasas 3+ goals
13%
BVSC 1+ goals
71%
BVSC 2+ goals
36%
BVSC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vasas (draw refunded)
50%
BVSC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

BVSC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas attack 1.50 + BVSC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

BVSC attack 1.00 + Vasas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vasas scores more
36%
level
27%
BVSC scores more
36%

Vasas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vasas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasas vs BVSC

BVSC beat Vasas 2-0 in League #272 on April 20, 2026.

The match was played at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest.