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Vasas vs Budafoki LC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vasas
Vasas
CANC
13:00
Budafoki LC
Budafoki LC
1/25/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vasas43%
×Draw23%
Budafoki LC34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas
1.75
Budafoki LC
1.52

Vasas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vasas
3.00
Budafoki LC
2.25

allows per match

Vasas
0.80
Budafoki LC
0.50

finishing

Vasas+0.00on par
Budafoki LC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas ↓

Budafoki LC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vasas or draw
66%
Vasas or Budafoki LC
77%
Draw or Budafoki LC
57%

Winning margin

Vasas wins by 2+
23%
Budafoki LC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vasas 1+ goals
83%
Vasas 2+ goals
52%
Vasas 3+ goals
25%
Budafoki LC 1+ goals
78%
Budafoki LC 2+ goals
45%
Budafoki LC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Vasas (draw refunded)
56%
Budafoki LC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Budafoki LC away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas attack 3.00 + Budafoki LC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Budafoki LC attack 2.25 + Vasas defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vasas scores more
43%
level
23%
Budafoki LC scores more
34%

Vasas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vasas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vasas vs Budafoki LC — Match Preview

Vasas face Budafoki LC on January 25, 2025 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.