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Vasas II vs Szolnoki MAV FC — NB III - Southeast 2023

Vasas II
Vasas II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Szolnoki MAV FC
Szolnoki MAV FC
8/18/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 4Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vasas II63%
×Draw20%
Szolnoki MAV FC17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas II
2.18
Szolnoki MAV FC
1.05

Vasas II creates 108% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Vasas II
2.07
Szolnoki MAV FC
0.83

allows per match

Vasas II
1.27
Szolnoki MAV FC
2.30

finishing

Vasas II+0.00on par
Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas II ↓

Szolnoki MAV FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vasas II or draw
83%
Vasas II or Szolnoki MAV FC
80%
Draw or Szolnoki MAV FC
37%

Winning margin

Vasas II wins by 2+
40%
Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vasas II 1+ goals
89%
Vasas II 2+ goals
64%
Vasas II 3+ goals
37%
Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals
65%
Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals
28%
Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vasas II (draw refunded)
78%
Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Szolnoki MAV FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas II attack 2.07 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.18

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 0.83 + Vasas II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vasas II scores more
63%
level
20%
Szolnoki MAV FC scores more
17%

Vasas II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vasas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasas II vs Szolnoki MAV FC

Vasas II beat Szolnoki MAV FC 2-0 in NB III - Southeast on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest.