Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vasas II vs Pénzügyőr — NB III - Southeast 2023

Vasas II
Vasas II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Pénzügyőr
Pénzügyőr
9/8/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 7Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vasas II53%
×Draw22%
Pénzügyőr24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas II
1.92
Pénzügyőr
1.23

Vasas II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Vasas II
2.07
Pénzügyőr
1.20

allows per match

Vasas II
1.27
Pénzügyőr
1.77

finishing

Vasas II+0.00on par
Pénzügyőr+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas II ↓

Pénzügyőr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vasas II or draw
76%
Vasas II or Pénzügyőr
78%
Draw or Pénzügyőr
47%

Winning margin

Vasas II wins by 2+
31%
Pénzügyőr wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vasas II 1+ goals
85%
Vasas II 2+ goals
57%
Vasas II 3+ goals
30%
Pénzügyőr 1+ goals
71%
Pénzügyőr 2+ goals
35%
Pénzügyőr 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vasas II (draw refunded)
69%
Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Pénzügyőr away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas II attack 2.07 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.92

Pénzügyőr attack 1.20 + Vasas II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vasas II scores more
53%
level
22%
Pénzügyőr scores more
24%

Vasas II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vasas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Vasas II 4–1 Pénzügyőr

Vasas II beat Pénzügyőr 4-1 in NB III - Southeast on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest.