Vasas II 0–0 Hódmezővásárhely: Result & Stats

Vasas II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hódmezővásárhely

3/10/2024

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 19Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vasas II47%

×Draw24%

Hódmezővásárhely29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasas IIExpected goals in this matchHódmezővásárhely

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.31

Vasas II

1.71

Hódmezővásárhely

1.31

Vasas II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.07

creates per match

1.36

1.27

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Vasas II

2.07

Hódmezővásárhely

1.36

allows per match

Vasas II

1.27

Hódmezővásárhely

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasas II+0.00on par

Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas II ↓

Hódmezővásárhely →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vasas II or draw

71%

Vasas II or Hódmezővásárhely

76%

Draw or Hódmezővásárhely

53%

Winning margin

Vasas II wins by 2+

25%

Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vasas II 1+ goals

82%

Vasas II 2+ goals

51%

Vasas II 3+ goals

24%

Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals

73%

Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals

38%

Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vasas II (draw refunded)

61%

Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas II at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Hódmezővásárhely away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas II attack 2.07 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.36 + Vasas II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vasas II scores more

47%

level

24%

Hódmezővásárhely scores more

29%

Vasas II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vasas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff