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Vasas Femina W vs Selena Constanţa W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Vasas Femina W
Vasas Femina W
FT
4 – 0
Selena Constanţa W
Selena Constanţa W
10/3/2020Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 4Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Vasas Femina W70%
×Draw15%
Selena Constanţa W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas Femina W
3.12
Selena Constanţa W
1.43

Vasas Femina W creates 118% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 10 away

creates per match

Vasas Femina W
1.73
Selena Constanţa W
0.70

allows per match

Vasas Femina W
2.16
Selena Constanţa W
4.50

finishing

Vasas Femina W+0.00on par
Selena Constanţa W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas Femina W ↓

Selena Constanţa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Vasas Femina W or draw
85%
Vasas Femina W or Selena Constanţa W
85%
Draw or Selena Constanţa W
30%

Winning margin

Vasas Femina W wins by 2+
50%
Selena Constanţa W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vasas Femina W 1+ goals
95%
Vasas Femina W 2+ goals
81%
Vasas Femina W 3+ goals
59%
Selena Constanţa W 1+ goals
76%
Selena Constanţa W 2+ goals
42%
Selena Constanţa W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)
82%
Selena Constanţa W (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas Femina W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.16 · 56 matches

Selena Constanţa W away — creates 0.70, concedes 4.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas Femina W attack 1.73 + Selena Constanţa W defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.12

Selena Constanţa W attack 0.70 + Vasas Femina W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Vasas Femina W scores more
70%
level
15%
Selena Constanţa W scores more
15%

Vasas Femina W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vasas Femina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Vasas Femina W 4–0 Selena Constanţa W

Vasas Femina W beat Selena Constanţa W 4-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Odorheiu Secuiesc.