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Vasas Femina W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Vasas Femina W
Vasas Femina W
FT
0 – 0
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
4/18/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 3Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Vasas Femina W25%
×Draw21%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas Femina W
1.41
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.17

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vasas Femina W
1.73
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.18

allows per match

Vasas Femina W
2.16
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
1.09

finishing

Vasas Femina W+0.00on par
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas Femina W ↓

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vasas Femina W or draw
45%
Vasas Femina W or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
79%
Draw or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
75%

Winning margin

Vasas Femina W wins by 2+
11%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Vasas Femina W 1+ goals
76%
Vasas Femina W 2+ goals
41%
Vasas Femina W 3+ goals
17%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals
89%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals
64%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)
31%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas Femina W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.16 · 56 matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas Femina W attack 1.73 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 2.18 + Vasas Femina W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vasas Femina W scores more
25%
level
21%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more
55%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasas Femina W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

Vasas Femina W and Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W drew 0-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Odorheiu Secuiesc.