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Vasas Femina W vs Fairplay Bucureşti W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Vasas Femina W
Vasas Femina W
FT
8 – 2
Fairplay Bucureşti W
Fairplay Bucureşti W
5/29/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 10Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Vasas Femina W57%
×Draw18%
Fairplay Bucureşti W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasas Femina W
2.80
Fairplay Bucureşti W
1.83

Vasas Femina W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 32 away

creates per match

Vasas Femina W
1.73
Fairplay Bucureşti W
1.50

allows per match

Vasas Femina W
2.16
Fairplay Bucureşti W
3.88

finishing

Vasas Femina W+0.00on par
Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas Femina W ↓

Fairplay Bucureşti W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Vasas Femina W or draw
75%
Vasas Femina W or Fairplay Bucureşti W
82%
Draw or Fairplay Bucureşti W
43%

Winning margin

Vasas Femina W wins by 2+
38%
Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vasas Femina W 1+ goals
94%
Vasas Femina W 2+ goals
76%
Vasas Femina W 3+ goals
52%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals
84%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals
54%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)
70%
Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas Femina W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.16 · 56 matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas Femina W attack 1.73 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.80

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 1.50 + Vasas Femina W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vasas Femina W scores more
57%
level
18%
Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more
25%

Vasas Femina W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vasas Femina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vasas Femina W vs Fairplay Bucureşti W

Vasas Femina W beat Fairplay Bucureşti W 8-2 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Odorheiu Secuiesc.