Vasas Femina W 6–1 Banat Girls W: Result & Stats

Vasas Femina W

FT

6 – 1

Banat Girls W

9/26/2021

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 4Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Vasas Femina W50%

×Draw20%

Banat Girls W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasas Femina WExpected goals in this matchBanat Girls W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.73

Vasas Femina W

2.25

Banat Girls W

1.73

Vasas Femina W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 43 away

1.73

creates per match

1.30

2.16

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Vasas Femina W

1.73

Banat Girls W

1.30

allows per match

Vasas Femina W

2.16

Banat Girls W

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Banat Girls W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasas Femina W ↓

Banat Girls W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Vasas Femina W or draw

70%

Vasas Femina W or Banat Girls W

80%

Draw or Banat Girls W

50%

Winning margin

Vasas Femina W wins by 2+

30%

Banat Girls W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vasas Femina W 1+ goals

89%

Vasas Femina W 2+ goals

65%

Vasas Femina W 3+ goals

39%

Banat Girls W 1+ goals

82%

Banat Girls W 2+ goals

52%

Banat Girls W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)

62%

Banat Girls W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasas Femina W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.16 · 56 matches

Banat Girls W away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.77 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasas Femina W attack 1.73 + Banat Girls W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.25

Banat Girls W attack 1.30 + Vasas Femina W defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vasas Femina W scores more

50%

level

20%

Banat Girls W scores more

30%

Vasas Femina W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vasas Femina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff